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Golden Championship Series: Groups Analysis

30.05.18 | UgriWC3 2734

Introduction

Finally, the group stage's structure has been released!

What are the chances to see your favorite player reach the playoffs?

Let's review each group one by one. We will study their map score in the last two years, their recent history and we will conclude with the prediction from two famous commentators

 

 

Group A : The B-Kings Showdown

Statistics

120 - Chaemiko : [6-0]
Infi - 120 : [20-15]
Infi - Chaemiko : [15-2]

Recent History 

This group has two rookies Hunter and Chaemiko. The former has no history in official competitions against his three opponents. The later never won a series and has a [2-21] overall score against Infi and 120.
During GCS Summer 2017, Infi and 120 were already in the same group, Infi ended  up in the first place. They met again in the final with a fantastic scenario that saw 120 claim his second title in a row [3-2].
GCS Winter 2017 was not as successful, both dropping surprisingly in the group stage. Infi lost to Focus [0-2] while 120 was taken out by Romantic [1-2].

Prediction

TeD : 120Infi
"120 must be first and Infi second, just because 120 is a small b-king* while Infi is a big b-king!"
*b-king : a person who likes to "show-off" in Chinese slang

Chaco120 Infi
"I don't see Hunter or Chaemiko upsetting Infi or 120 here. Infi doesn't seem very confident vs 120. When they play against each other on ladder, he leaves games when he has just a small disadvantage, he does that against no one else."

-> You can vote and give your opinion : strawpoll 

 

Group B : A Formality for Korea?

Statistics

Lyn - HawK : [2-0]
Moon - Tbc_bm : [3-0]
Lyn - Moon : [19-16]
Moon - HawK : [4-1]

Recent History 

Tbc_bm returns to Shanghai after missing on qualifying for the last two years. HawK is not very active and failed to qualify for the previous season, Orcworker represented Europe then.
During GCS Summer 2017, HawK was eliminated by Moon in the LB Round 1 [1-2]. The legendary 5th race was then painfully taken out by Fly100% [1-2] after misbuilding his AOW too close to a creep camp in the 3rd game. Lyn was absent that season, because of his hand injury.
During GCS Winter 2017, Lyn and Moon were both eliminated in the group stage, respectively by Romantic and TH000.
This time they should manage to qualify and battle for the first place. They met in the semi finals of AWL in April for a clean 3-0 victory in favor of Lyn.

Prediction

Yaya : Lyn Moon 
"I think Lyn will win the group. Moon has a weakness against orcs"

Jupanda : Lyn Moon
"I expect Lyn to win and Moon to take second place considering their recent performances with the new patch 1.29"

->You can vote and give your opinion : strawpoll

 

Group C: LawLiet The Dark Horse

Statistics

Focus - Colorful : [21-14]
LawLiet - TH000 : [19-21]
Focus - TH000 : [9-23]
Focus - LawLiet : [43-45]
LawLiet - Colorful : [17-7]
TH000 - Colorful : [5-1]

Recent History 

It will be hard for Colorful to avoid the last place of his group. He has a bad win ratio against his three opponents. Colorful didn't qualify for the previous season, and was eliminated in the group stage during GCS Summer 2017.

TH000 won the last season eliminating FoCuS in the semi finals [3-2]. He has a real edge with a 72% win ratio against the Korean.
Seems like LawLiet has the key to this group and he could be the biggest threat to the current champion. With a 50% win ratio against his two opponents everything is possible. LawLiet won his group last season beating FoCuS in the WB final  [2-0] before unexpectedly falling [1-3] to Check in the Quarterfinals.

Prediction

Qiaolin : TH000 FoCuS
"TH000's play is more stable than his opponents. Focus can be trusted against NE "

RemodemoFoCuS TH000
"I got a good feeling about Focus, this time around. We all know he is never one for lack of practice. He is going to have the timings and creep routes down and will be able to deflect TH000's tower pushes in the upper bracket final.
Then again, it might be LawLiet who gets there, depending on how in shape he and how powerful the warden is on that day. But there I would give him the edge as well. TH000 has a history of dropping into the lower bracket early and then having a very strong run there. This is what I expect to happen here once again."

>You can vote and give your opinion : strawpoll


Group D: Nobody is Safe

Statistics

Foggy - Life : [3-6]
WFZ -  Fly100% : [13-16]
Life - Fly100% : [14-15]
Life - WFZ : [10-9]
Foggy - WFZ : [8-6]

Recent History 
This is when you realize that Foggy never faced Fly100% in an official competition! Confrontations between those four players are really close statistically, nobody has a real edge. It might all come down to who has the strongest mind of them all.
Foggy should be considered a favorite, ending 3rd and 2nd in the last two editions.
Life and Fly100% ranked 1st and 2nd in their group during the Summer 2017 edition before both got eliminated in the next round by Xixi and TH000 respectively.
Last season, Life won his group once more before being eliminated once again by TH000. Be careful, the youngster is a group winner! He did not practice much for the last two months though which might cost him this time.
Fly100% won his group as well last season before losing to FoCuS [2-3] in the Quarterfinals.
This overall might make it hard for WFZ to qualify for the playoffs as he was eliminated in the group stages the last two seasons. He lost to Foggy and Moon [1-2] after leading [1-0] during Winter 2017.

Prediction

SnowKiss : FoggyFly100%
"I will always give my vote for Foggy as I really hope to see a none Chinese/Korean player qualify. Fly100% is coming back strong now. WFZ lacks a little bit of experience in comparison" 

Neo : Foggy WFZ

"Of course you're giving the hardest task to me, thanks a lot Ugri! I think this group is pretty unpredictable, because all players except Foggy are in general of equal strength. Foggy is the big favorite concerning his past GCS performances and also how well he played in Chinese tournaments recently - he made it to finals with a huge ping disadvantage. Life, Fly and WFZ though.... you never know what you get. Is Life practicing at all? Is he in the mood after his forfeits in the past major tournaments? Fly played surprisingly well in the May qualifier, but the rest of his season was medicore at best plus there's always the chance for him to lose his Blademaster as we've seen a million times now. WFZ might be the underdog on paper, but he's actually my favorit for rank 2 here IF, and only if, he plays a little more clever and patient. He threw so many games this season, but his results are getting better and better everytime.
So if you ask me, Foggy first, WFZ second - even if it's a pretty unpopular opinion"
 
 
>You can vote and give your opinion : strawpoll

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