Masaa
Masaa
3

w3arena 🐉

Atlas1407
Atlas1407
2

fikeef2i

Gera Fantasy League
1
bityutskiy32
Happy | XeLSinG | Anima
Puppet | thegreatwall
1
iusemoonwells32
Happy | Cash | Sok
CheerOn | Puppet
3
Thendis3231
Happy | Puppet | Bany
Sok | Cash
4
kasperfan_30
Happy | Cash | CheerOn
thegreatwall | NikoMalick
5
moepmoep081529
Chaemiko | Happy | Puppet
HawK | BLR.PteN
5
davidmind29
Happy | Cash | CheerOn
Sok | thegreatwall
5
Parasect_HP29
Happy | Chaemiko | DeathnotEa
CheerOn | BLR.PteN
5
thepretender60629
Happy | Cash | thegreatwall
Sok | CheerOn
5
impulse10029
Happy | Cash | Sok
thegreatwall | CheerOn
5
Turbosau29
Lucifer | Chaemiko | Cash
CheerOn | Sonik
5
Venhail29
Happy | Cash | hummme
Masaa | thegreatwall
warcraft3-twitch-audience-analysis.png

Warcraft 3 on Twitch - The most comprehensive Analysis

In the last 30 days, 43.000 people have watched more than 438.000 hours of Warcraft 3 on Twitch. It took me a month of work to come up with this fact. Working on this topic enabled me to answer many other questions. I will give you detailed information about the biggest WC3 streamers, their audiences and recommendations that could improve the WC3 Community.

I invite you to join me on a journey into the most comprehensive review ever of Warcraft 3 on Twitch!

The WC3 Twitch Community

Firstly, let me tell you what I define as "WC3 Community". When I am talking about the WC3 Community, I am obviously not talking about Funmaps and Dota. Only 50% of people who watch Streams in the "Warcraft III The Frozen Throne" category on Twitch actually watch "real" Warcraft 3. For this analysis, I have excluded all the WC3 streamers who broadcast mostly Funmaps. Their numbers will not appear anywhere and you can be sure that my statistics reflect actual Warcraft 3 TFT action.

Research Methods

This part is aimed to give you some background about Twitch statistics and my research methods. If you only care about the results, feel free to skip this part.

First of all, we need to understand how to evaluate the success of a Twitch channel.

Let us be clear about it: Followers are absolutely meaningless when it comes to a channel's success. The actual most important indicator for success is Watch Time. Watch Time is the sum of time that all viewers spent watching a channel in a given period. It can be calculated by multiplying Time Streamed with Average Viewers during that period of time. Time Streamed refers to a streams productiveness and Average Viewers to its efficiency. Watch Time is a much better indicator for success than Average Viewers. In a previous analysis, I’ve found out that there is no significant correlation between Total Followers and Watch Time, which is most likely caused by inactive Followers.

Furthermore, what we should care about is how many people actually watch a stream (Audience Size). We could try to estimate this using measures such as Average Viewers. However, there is one problem: Are the same people watching every time or do they change? A very important question for advertisers! Average Viewers or Views Gained will not answer this question. We need to go deeper!

Many numbers like Follower Count, View Count or Average Viewers can be looked up easily on Twitch statistics websites. However, if you want to dive into a deep analysis, it is absolutely necessary to mine thousands of datasets using the Twitch API and collecting additional data on user behavior. It took me many days just to collect over a quarter million datasets which were necessary for this depth of analysis. I spent even more time analyzing the numbers. The whole process from start to finish took me about a month.

By mining HUGE amounts of data and using statistical methods, I’ve found a way to reliably determine the total monthly amount of people that visit a stream. I know how often they visit in a given period of time and how many minutes they usually watch.

These numbers are not publicly available and to my knowledge, nobody has done this before. I will spare you the technical details. All you need to know is that I didn't just make up my numbers and there is an extensive research process behind them. If you are really interested, feel free to contact me personally.

WC3 Twitch Communities

As there are more than a hundred channels actively streaming WC3 on a regular basis, it is wise to group them into broader categories. There are three main WC3 Communities on Twitch which can be distinguished mostly by language or geographically: Asian, Western and Russian. Here is a list of the main streamers for each group:

Asian

 

Western

 

Russian

Remind

 

Back2Warcraft

 

Happy

Check

 

Wtii

 

Foggy

Sok

 

S3xytime

 

Sonik

Lawliet

 

ToD

 

Imperius

Indra

 

Masaa

 

 

Lucifer

 

Ena1337

 

 

Fsfrenzy

 

Marsimoo

 

 

Chaemiko

 

Lykingsprotv

 

 

Focus

 

 

 

 

Reprisal

 

 

 

 

So.in

 

 

 

 

Please note that I have used data about some smaller streamers as well but chose not to display them in the tables. Their data does not provide much additional information and including them would make the tables too big.

Theoretically, Grubby would be a member of the Western Community but since his performance numbers are unmatched by any other WC3 Stream, I will treat him as a whole Community by himself. You will see why in the next part.

Community Comparison

Let's dive into some of the performance numbers for each Community. The two most important columns are Watch Time and Audience Size. The numbers refer to a 30 day period (25.03.17-24.04.17).

Let me give you an example of how to read the table: Russian streamers had a total of 46.968 hours in Watch Time in the last 30 days. On average, each of their viewers watched 5,1 hours of their content in that time. The average viewer visited Russian streams 8,3 times in these 30 days and watched for 37 minutes each time. There are 9.212 people in their monthly Audience.

Community 24.04.17 AVG Viewer Time Streamed (hours) Views Gained Watch Time (hours) Hours Watched per Viewer Minutes Watched per Session Average Sessions per Viewer Audience Size

Asian

267

685

214.238

211.096

10,5

59

10,7

20.015

Russian

119

319

76.890

46.968

5,1

37

8,3

9.212

Western

213

356

89.382

63.360

7,6

43

10,8

8.302

Grubby

3.799

32

105.357

117.216

7,6

67

3,4

31.106

WC3

372

1.391

485.867

438.640

10,2

54

11,3

43.173

As we can see, Grubby gets roughly 26% of all WC3 Watch Time, even though he only streams 32 hours in a month. This is due to the huge amount of Average Viewers that he receives. Furthermore, 75% of the total WC3 Audience watches his channel. Now you probably understand why I picked him as a separate Community. Russian and Western Communities are fairly similar in terms of numbers. The Asian Community has grown considerably larger and has almost 50% of all WC3 Watch Time. If you've been on Twitch for a while, you've probably noticed the number of Asian streams increasing and performing better and better.

If you’ve paid some attention, you might have noticed that the Audience numbers of each Community added together are higher than the total WC3 Audience. This is caused by overlap between Communities. For instance, many Western viewers also watch Russian streams. This overlap will be analyzed in the next section.

Shared Audiences

First of all, lets talk about exclusivity. A viewer is an exclusive viewer if he only watches within one Community and doesn't visit other Communities. Shared viewers are shared with other Communities. I have calculated each Community's exclusive and shared viewers in the following table.

Community

Exclusivity

Exclusive Viewers

Shared Viewers

Asian

61%

12.251

7.764

Russian

53%

4.891

4.321

Western

54%

4.473

3.829

Grubby

75%

23.329

7.776

WC3

6%

2.547

40.626

Grubby is by far the most exclusive Community which is especially impressive since he is a one-man-show as opposed to the other Communities. This can be easily explained by his status as a famous streamer who draws viewers from games other than WC3 such as SC2 and Heroes of the Storm. Furthermore, it makes sense that 61% of Asian audiences stick to Asian streamers due to language barriers. Overall, we can see that every Community shares its viewers to a certain extent with the others.

Shared Audience Distribution

Now that we have established that many viewers cross Communities to watch WC3 streams, let's see where they are going. In the following tables I have included the four Communities as well as the four biggest WC3 Streams (Back2Warcraft, Checkpooh, Remindcast, Happy). People obviously also visit other streams but for viewing purposes I only included the biggest streams.

You will find each Community's shared viewer count in the left box.

WC3 Shared Audience on Twitch

Viewers from the Asian Community tend to watch Grubby or Western Streams rather than Russian Streams. There is a strong connection between Grubby and Western Community. This makes sense since Grubby would be a member of this Community had I not chosen to treat him separately. Russian Viewers tend to prefer Western streams over Asian streams. Most viewers from other communities prefer Checkpooh over Remind. An explanation for this could be the fact that Check has been on Twitch for a long time and people are familiar with his Stream. Furthermore, the analysis shows that Happy and Back2Warcraft are by far the most popular choices for viewers from other Communities who watch Russian or Western Streams.

Shared Audiences between Channels

Now let's break it down on individual channels. In the following table I have calculated the exclusivity for each of the 24 biggest streamers.

Streamer 24.04.17 Audience Exclusivity Exclusive Audience
Grubby 31.106 75% 23.329
Remind 12.850 12% 1.503
Check 10.790 15% 1.604
Happy 8.904 50% 4.431
Back2Warcraft 5.759 30% 1.714
Sok 5.614 7% 415
Lawliet 5.574 7% 368
Lucifer 4.550 1% 57
Indra 3.582 38% 1.415
Fsfrenzy 3.565 15% 549
Wtii 2.730 68% 1.856
Chaemiko 1.515 3% 36
S3xytime 1.373 1% 18
Focus 1.370 2% 33
Foggy 1.297 31% 407
ToD 1.129 48% 538
Imperius 639 29% 184
Sonik 617 31% 189
Reprisal 422 3% 11
RMMasaa 416 22% 90
So.in 374 4% 16
Marsimoo 340 18% 63
Ena1337 244 19% 46
Lykingsprotv 99 59% 59
WC3 43.173 6% 2.547

Grubby really stands out here again with 75% of his audience watching his channel exclusively. To me it doesn't come as a surprise that Wtii has a similar degree of exclusivity. He draws a large share of his audience from Youtube and is a bit of an outsider when it comes to the WC3 scene. Asian streamers have usually low exclusivity which means that they share many viewers with other WC3 streams.

With whom do the big channels share their viewers? Here are the top five shared audiences for each of the five biggest streamers.

Grubby Shared
Back2Warcraft 13%
Happy 6%
Lucifer 5%
Wtii 5%
Foggy 4%
Back2Warcraft Shared
Grubby 53%
Lucifer 16%
Check 13%
Foggy 12%
Happy 12%
Remind Shared
Check 59%
Lawliet 54%
Indra 54%
Lucifer 53%
Sok 47%
Check Shared
Indra 49%
Lawliet 49%
Sok 42%
Lucifer 41%
Fsfrenzy 36%
Happy Shared
Grubby 35%
Back2Warcraft 18%
Foggy 16%
Check 10%
Sonik 9%

Asian Streamers such as Check and Remind share very large percentages of their audience with other Asian streamers. They often host each other. It seems that Western and Russian streamers tend to be more exclusive - maybe because they don't cooperate much with other channels. Their audiences are more spread out.

If you require some additional numbers about shared audiences, send me a message or write a comment.

Channel Performance Comparison

You have already seen the performance data for Grubby’s channel. But what about the others? Got you! Here is the data for the 24 biggest WC3 Twitch channels. Once again, the numbers refer to a 30 day period (25.03.17-24.04.17).

Streamer 24.04.17 AVG Viewer Time Streamed (hours) Views Gained Watch Time (hours) Hours Watched per Viewer Minutes Watched per Session Average Sessions per Viewer Audience Size
Grubby 3.799 32 105.357 117.216 7,6 67 3,4 31.106
Remind 789 68 46.879 58.776 4,6 75 3,6 12.850
Check 309 126 44.483 44.664 4,1 60 4,1 10.790
Happy 311 113 51.067 36.528 4,1 42 5,7 8.904
Back2Warcraft 829 27 31.478 25.152 4,4 48 5,5 5.759
Sok 228 91 20.208 22.584 4,0 67 3,6 5.614
Lawliet 365 52 20.401 21.624 3,9 64 3,7 5.574
Lucifer 154 91 22.083 14.856 3,3 40 4,9 4.550
Indra 593 37 29.587 22.272 6,2 45 8,3 3.582
Fsfrenzy 153 86 17.133 14.928 4,2 52 4,8 3.565
Wtii 308 78 30.585 24.624 9,0 48 11,2 2.730
Chaemiko 104 39 4.982 4.560 3,0 55 3,3 1.515
S3xytime 37 122 11.190 4.824 3,5 26 8,2 1.373
Focus 124 67 5.301 4.480 3,3 51 3,9 1.370
Foggy 97 47 11.741 5.040 3,9 26 9,1 1.297
ToD 354 8 4.164 2.568 2,3 37 3,7 1.129
Imperius 23 92 6.322 2.400 3,8 23 9,9 639
Sonik 45 67 7.760 3.000 4,9 23 12,6 617
Reprisal 60 117 1.841 1.368 3,2 44 4,4 422
RMMasaa 34 53 4.309 2.304 5,5 32 10,4 416
So.in 62 15 1.340 984 2,6 44 3,6 374
Marsimoo 64 22 3.814 1.848 5,4 29 11,2 340
Ena1337 26 32 2.445 1.224 5,0 30 10,0 244
Lykingsprotv 52 15 1.397 816 8,2 35 14,1 99
WC3 372 1.391 485.867 438.640 10,2 54 11,3 43.173

Once again, Watch Time and Audience Size are the most important numbers but other statistics such as Hours Watch per Viewer and Average Sessions per Viewer can also be very interesting. It seems there are differences in the way that people watch each stream. I will leave it to you to analyze this yourself.

Channel Performance Trends

We have seen the current performance of each streamer but what about the past? Have they improved or did their audiences shrink?

I have collected some historic data to evaluate how a channel has developed in the last three months. The first performance indicator is Watch Time. The "90 Days Average" (right pie chart) is the past performance and the "30 Days Average" (left pie chart) is the current performance.

WC3 Watch Time on Twitch

The distribution of Watch Time has mostly stayed the same in the last 90 days. Back2Warcraft fell behind Happy (from 9% to 6% of the total WC3 Watch Time) and Remind has strenghtened his position as the second behind Grubby who is leading by roughly a quarter of all WC3 Watch Time.

Our second performance indicator is the Audience Size.

WC3 Twitch Audience Size Comparison

On average, WC3 Audiences have been shrinking in the last 3 months. However, this doesn’t necessarily mean that less people are interested in WC3. Audience sizes always fluctuate depending on tournaments and on how much a streamer broadcasts. Keep in mind that there were some big events in the beginning of this year which drew many viewers. Even without these events, the total Audience is still looking quite healthy with a total of 43.000 (49.000 in the last three months) people tuning in each month. In general, it seems that our current WC3 Community on Twitch fluctuates somewhere around this number depending on the events.

Streamers such as Remind, Check and S3xytime who actually increased their audience during this current downtrend can definitely be seen as winners. Back2Warcraft's audience decreased a lot since January. This was most likely caused by Back2Warcraft streaming less in the last months and because of major events in the beginning of the year that increased their numbers a lot. Overall, their stream and its numbers still look very healthy.

Most streamers who have lost a large share of Watch Time and Audience size have streamed considerably less in the last months. This stresses the importance of continuity in streaming.

What else do WC3 Viewers watch?

In the exclusivity analysis, we already saw that only 6% of all viewers watch WC3 exclusively. But what else do they watch? I've got the numbers! Firstly, lets take a look into streamers that are popular with WC3 Audiences. I have prepared a table with the streamer, his main game and the percentage of WC3 viewers who watch his stream.

Streamer Main Game Watched by
nl_kripp Hearthstone 12%
sung0 Hearthstone 11%
sodapoppin For Honor 10%
amazhs Hearthstone 9%
riotgames League of Legends 9%
trumpsc Hearthstone 9%
Lirik PLAYERUNKNOWN'S BG 9%
zilioner Heroes of the Storm 8%
forsenlol Hearthstone 8%
bobross Creative 8%
summit1g Counter-Strike: GO 8%
gsl StarCraft II 8%
esl_csgo Counter-Strike: GO 7%
kolento Hearthstone 7%
faker League of Legends 7%
playhearthstone Hearthstone 7%
esl_sc2 StarCraft II 7%
reynad27 Hearthstone 6%
ddahyoni Hearthstone 6%
hanryang1125 Overwatch 6%

Hearthstone streamers which seem to be very popular amongst WC3 Viewers. Some people like sung0 have a WC3 background so it makes sense that many people who like WC3 watch him. Now let's check out popular games in general:

Game Watched by
League of Legends 61%
Hearthstone 52%
Dota 2 41%
StarCraft II 35%
Counter-Strike: Global Offensive 32%
Overwatch 28%
World of Warcraft 24%
Heroes of the Storm 18%
Talk Shows 11%
IRL 11%
Creative 11%
H1Z1: King of the Kill 11%
For Honor 8%
Street Fighter V 5%
Zelda: BOTW 4%
Poker 4%
Nioh 4%
Minecraft 4%
Path of Exile 4%
Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six: Siege 3%

There are no major surprises there. The list reads mostly like the Twitch directory from top to bottom. Overall, WC3 Viewers seem to watch many popular games. It doesn’t come as a surprise that Blizzard Games appear frequently in the most watched games. The MOBA genre also seems more popular than I expected amongst WC3 viewers.

Advice for WC3 Streamers & Communities

These were lots of fancy statistics. Now what? First of all, we finally have an idea about the number of people that are interested in this wonderful game on Twitch. This is very valuable information for possible advertisers. Furthermore, it shows that there is still a lot of untapped potential.

We should take a moment and try to learn from streamers and Communities that are performing well. I think there are lots of things that Western and Russian streamers can learn from the Asian Community. What are they doing better than we are? Spoiler: The secret is probably not watching Kpop on stream like Check! ;)

I have presented a lot of data about the exclusivity of a stream. This could lead some people to believe that one should strive for an audience as exclusive as possible. In my opinion, this is not the way to go. Most Streamers cannot stream 24/7. By increasing their cooperation with other streamers that have a different audience, both streamers can gain viewers. The Asian community is flourishing even though exclusivity of Asian streamers is very low. They usually host each other when they go offline, providing more content to viewers that don't know where to go and helping their peers. This is definitely something where Western and Russian streamers can improve.

WC3 viewers watch many different games. By increasing cooperation between streamers we could probably get people to spend more time on WC3 instead of League of Legends & co.

There could also be more communication on streaming schedules. In my opinion, Grubby has this figured out. Of course he has a large followship but his schedule is also optimized and contributes to his great numbers. He usually starts to stream WC3 right after big events such as Gera Cup. This makes it easy for people to anticipate his stream and he gets all of the viewers that long for more WC3 content after the tournament.

 

I hope you enjoyed reading my article. As I have said, I have a lot of additional data. If you need more information, just ask me and I'll see if I can answer your question. Of course it is up to you to draw your own conclusions from the data I presented. There are many ways to think about it. You can also join the discussion on Reddit where I have answered some additional questions.

David

About David

I'm a Business Analyst and the guy behind Warcraft3.info. Warcraft 3 has been my passion for many years. I've picked up Web Development as a hobby which lead to the creation of this website.

You can find me on Twitter here: @davidmind89

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