Farsight: Player OddsTournament Odds


Project Farsight

The Farsight Calculator uses historic match data to predict winning odds between two players.

The easiest way to predict the chances of winning between two players is to compare how they have played against each other in the past. However, often they haven't played many times or their last encounter was many months ago. Sometimes, they haven't played against each other at all! To overcome these problems, I have created this algorithm which I call the Farsight Calculator.

The algorithm is doing what most humans would do to predict who is going to win a match (but way faster, more reliable and objective). Firstly, it compares the direct match scores between two players if there is any data available. Additionally, it searches for other people that both players have faced and compares how they did against them.

Example: As of today (08.05.2017), Happy has never played against 120. But both of them played against Foggy. 120 has done better against Foggy, so he would get a better score than Happy. All of these scores are weighted and added up for each of the mutual opponents.

While comparing players and predicting the final chance of winning, the algorithm is also taking other factors such as races, how often they played and time passed since the encounter into account.

The Farsight Calculator is performing very well for players with many matches in the database. If there isn't a lot of data available, its accuracy decreases a lot. Because of that I have limited the players that you can select to players who have at least 20 games in the database. The predictions will improve with each additional match that I insert into my database.

There are still some bugs that I didn't fix in the current version. I will continue to work on this tool and try to find other ways to improve its predictions.